IMO

Observations from the 4th IMO GHG Study

Background:

In July 2020, the IMO 4th GHG study was released, and the highlights and an executive summary were presented as a submission to IMO’s Marine Environmental Protection Committee for discussion at the upcoming MEPC 75 (virtual meeting scheduled on 16-20 November 2020). The study was conducted by an international group of experts from academia, Class societies, and non-governmental organizations, with data contributions from BIMCO, Maersk, the World Shipping Council, and others. Previous studies published in 2000, 2009, and 2014, have been used by IMO in addressing the GHG emissions from ships. Each subsequent study has improved on the methodologies used to quantify emissions to date and to project future GHG emissions. Previous, current, and future Studies are intended to promote reasoned debate at IMO and to measure the effectiveness of IMO regulations on GHG emissions.


Some Highlights from the 4th GHG Study:

  • Between 2012-2018:

o   GHG emissions from shipping increased 9.6%, but are slightly down from the 2008 ‘baseline’

o   shipping’s share of global GHG emissions increased slightly from 2.76% to 2.89%

o   the carbon intensity (GHG emissions per ton/mile of cargo transported) decreased by about 30%., with most of this reduction happening in the 2012-2015 period mainly attributed to larger and slightly slower ships.  The pace of decrease in emission intensity slowed between 2015-2018.

  • Without additional regulations, BAU – business as usual, the projections are that the emissions will range from flat to a 50% increase by 2050 as compared to 2018, primarily dependent on world trade growth

  • Emissions in 2020 and 2021 will be lower due to the impact of COVID and reductions in shipping volumes, but this is not expected to impact the long-term trends and results

  • LNG as a fuel saw an 87% increase between 2012 and 2018 with new LNG fueled ships coming online

  • Even with ECAs, the SOx and PM emissions from ships increased globally and this is believed to be based on a gradual increase in sulfur content in HFO fuel through 2019

  • This study is the first that claims to distinguish between domestic and international shipping

  • Unsurprisingly, the large ships are 80-100% on international voyages and the smallest category ships are only 20-40% international

Some observation and comments from Herbert Engineering:

IMO efforts to date have made improvements in the overall fleet efficiency due to EEDI for new ships. This combined with the commercially driven general efficiency improvements gained from larger ship sizes, along with somewhat slower ships speeds, has resulted in holding overall maritime GHG emission levels relatively constant since 2012 despite a very significant 40% growth in seaborne trade.

In the future as further efficiency gains become increasingly more difficult to realize, the long-term IMO GHG targets will need to be primarily met by adopting alternative low or zero carbon fuels. Early short-term contributions to overall GHG reductions can still be made for the existing ship fleet, while they remain in service, by further speed reductions. Mid-term contributions can be made by the adoption of bio-diesel fuels or early scrapping of existing ships replaced with newer more efficient designs. There are some worthy, but minimal, additional contributions to be had from further efficiency improvements or adopting hybrid and renewables (wind and solar).

If IMO is to make good on their on their pledge to reduce the GHG emissions from the marine sector to 50% of 2008 values by 2050, then ship owners and operators can expect ever increasing IMO GHG regulations for both new and existing ships. Upcoming regulations for new ships will likely continue the current EEDI pathway with ever increasing GHG reduction phases, eventually requiring alternative low-carbon fuels to comply. Because of the working life of a ship, the target GHG emissions cannot be met without also addressing existing ships. Upcoming regulations for existing ships are likely to incentivize further speed reductions, biofuel adoption, conversion to other low carbon alternatives, or early scraping.

At Herbert Engineering we are closely following the development of all practical low carbon technologies and have recently completed a series of proposed 2030 build, low and zero carbon ship designs of containerships, bulk carriers, tankers, and product carriers for ABS in their low carbon Shipping Outlook. We currently anticipate that the short and mid-term designs will focus on biofuels, LNG, and hybrid designs; but for the mid to long-term solutions we think hydrogen/ammonia powered fuel cells or ammonia powered ICE’s are strong candidates for future deep-sea long-haul cargo transport.

Maritime 2030 - Navigating the Future of Alternative Fuels and Hybrid Power

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On November 1st, Herbert Engineering President, Spencer Schilling, participated in a panel session reviewing future fuel options for ships in 2030, at the SNAME Maritime Convention in Tacoma WA - Panel Session.

Spencer reviewed out the ambitious IMO 2030 and 2050 goals for GHG emissions, and presented some of the positive and negative aspects of some of the potential lower-carbon fuels such as LNG, Methanol, Ammonia, Hydrogen, Biofuels, Synthetic Fuels, and also Battery/Hybrid as well as solar, wind, and carbon capture. It is important not to just consider GHG produced onboard, but to include all the equivalent GHG emissions considering the full ‘well-to-wake’ emissions. Many future fuels have potential to contribute to the GHG reductions for ships, but currently many of these fuels are produced with methods and non-renewable energy generating significant GHG during their production.

 There is no real ‘silver bullet’ for alternative fuels and it is likely that multiple fuel and powering technologies will immerge over the next 10-20 years. Bio-fuels and synthetic fuels would be the least disruptive to current ship technology and ship designs as they do not require any substantial technical innovation for adaptation, but alternative carbon-neutral and low-carbon fuels like Ammonia & Hydrogen have potential for long-haul ships but will require significant development in their shipboard adaptation.

There does not appear to be a clear ‘winner’ between ‘carbon-neutral’ biofuels and near ‘zero-carbon’ fuels like Hydrogen and Ammonia. The economics and world-wide scalability will likely be dominated by non-maritime transport and shoreside power production, since maritime is a fairly minor player in overall world energy demand. Battery, hybrid, solar, and wind all have their niches especially for smaller and short-haul vessels, but all are likely to play a limited and supplemental role in the future long-haul deep-sea transport business.

Future containership designs of a 2000 TEU feeder ship and a 14,000 new-Panamax containership are presented in their current 2020 configurations, as well as in their possible 2030 biofuel and hydrogen fuel cell variations. 

Spencer Schilling presenting at SNAME in November 2019.

Spencer Schilling presenting at SNAME in November 2019.