Background:
In July 2020, the IMO 4th GHG study was released, and the highlights and an executive summary were presented as a submission to IMO’s Marine Environmental Protection Committee for discussion at the upcoming MEPC 75 (virtual meeting scheduled on 16-20 November 2020). The study was conducted by an international group of experts from academia, Class societies, and non-governmental organizations, with data contributions from BIMCO, Maersk, the World Shipping Council, and others. Previous studies published in 2000, 2009, and 2014, have been used by IMO in addressing the GHG emissions from ships. Each subsequent study has improved on the methodologies used to quantify emissions to date and to project future GHG emissions. Previous, current, and future Studies are intended to promote reasoned debate at IMO and to measure the effectiveness of IMO regulations on GHG emissions.
Some Highlights from the 4th GHG Study:
Between 2012-2018:
o GHG emissions from shipping increased 9.6%, but are slightly down from the 2008 ‘baseline’
o shipping’s share of global GHG emissions increased slightly from 2.76% to 2.89%
o the carbon intensity (GHG emissions per ton/mile of cargo transported) decreased by about 30%., with most of this reduction happening in the 2012-2015 period mainly attributed to larger and slightly slower ships. The pace of decrease in emission intensity slowed between 2015-2018.
Without additional regulations, BAU – business as usual, the projections are that the emissions will range from flat to a 50% increase by 2050 as compared to 2018, primarily dependent on world trade growth
Emissions in 2020 and 2021 will be lower due to the impact of COVID and reductions in shipping volumes, but this is not expected to impact the long-term trends and results
LNG as a fuel saw an 87% increase between 2012 and 2018 with new LNG fueled ships coming online
Even with ECAs, the SOx and PM emissions from ships increased globally and this is believed to be based on a gradual increase in sulfur content in HFO fuel through 2019
This study is the first that claims to distinguish between domestic and international shipping
Unsurprisingly, the large ships are 80-100% on international voyages and the smallest category ships are only 20-40% international
Some observation and comments from Herbert Engineering:
IMO efforts to date have made improvements in the overall fleet efficiency due to EEDI for new ships. This combined with the commercially driven general efficiency improvements gained from larger ship sizes, along with somewhat slower ships speeds, has resulted in holding overall maritime GHG emission levels relatively constant since 2012 despite a very significant 40% growth in seaborne trade.
In the future as further efficiency gains become increasingly more difficult to realize, the long-term IMO GHG targets will need to be primarily met by adopting alternative low or zero carbon fuels. Early short-term contributions to overall GHG reductions can still be made for the existing ship fleet, while they remain in service, by further speed reductions. Mid-term contributions can be made by the adoption of bio-diesel fuels or early scrapping of existing ships replaced with newer more efficient designs. There are some worthy, but minimal, additional contributions to be had from further efficiency improvements or adopting hybrid and renewables (wind and solar).
If IMO is to make good on their on their pledge to reduce the GHG emissions from the marine sector to 50% of 2008 values by 2050, then ship owners and operators can expect ever increasing IMO GHG regulations for both new and existing ships. Upcoming regulations for new ships will likely continue the current EEDI pathway with ever increasing GHG reduction phases, eventually requiring alternative low-carbon fuels to comply. Because of the working life of a ship, the target GHG emissions cannot be met without also addressing existing ships. Upcoming regulations for existing ships are likely to incentivize further speed reductions, biofuel adoption, conversion to other low carbon alternatives, or early scraping.
At Herbert Engineering we are closely following the development of all practical low carbon technologies and have recently completed a series of proposed 2030 build, low and zero carbon ship designs of containerships, bulk carriers, tankers, and product carriers for ABS in their low carbon Shipping Outlook. We currently anticipate that the short and mid-term designs will focus on biofuels, LNG, and hybrid designs; but for the mid to long-term solutions we think hydrogen/ammonia powered fuel cells or ammonia powered ICE’s are strong candidates for future deep-sea long-haul cargo transport.