After some hectic years preparing for the new Sulphur directive, the Shipping business is now moving its vision towards the new GHG regulations, with specific targets for both 2030 and 2050. During this spring, we have seen an increased amount of news and articles about different studies as well as a variety of fuel and product releases aiming at meeting these upcoming
IMO requirements for both new and existing ships.
We have already seen “waves” of news related to
- LNG
- Electrification/batteries
- Fuel cells
- Ammonia
- Hydrogen
- Bio- / renewable fuels
- Power to X
- Carbon capture
We have also seen a number of different ship concepts, all trying to envision the future ship concepts. The classification societies have been especially active. We have seen studies by ABS, LR, DNVGL, BV (at least). They have all taken somewhat different approaches, making it a little difficult to compare and draw specific conclusions.
A few observations:
- “Real” results require that you consider the total ship, not just the engine or fuel. Actually, not even the ship is enough,
you need to consider the full transportation task / system.
- Separating fuel and machinery will also give you only the “partial truth”
- Estimates are always only estimates. Estimating the future price of a specific component will always be difficult, especially for a 30-year time horizon.
- A “one size fits all”-type of a solution, will not find the correct solution for anyone. Multi-use easily turns into multi-useless.
- Well to wake fuel evaluation further complicates the issue but is an important consideration, as are the other health and
economic externalities of fuel consumption
- Will there be “green power” (ie. Wind, solar, or similar) for all planned users and how will maritime fit into the worldwide
power production system?
Many of us have also realized that there is not too much time to meet the 2030 goals. It will be a challenging balance between the 2030 and 2050 goals. We do not want to develop solutions for 2030 that will not be on a pathway towards the 2050 goals. At the same time, there are so many parameters affecting the outcome that we need to get going with actual investments to be able to get real life data to support our business decisions.
We are facing challenging but interesting times. If the shipping business can do this in the correct way, we have a chance to totally change the way the public looks at Shipping. We can be the forerunner in the GHG-discussion. Our business has not been known for being innovative and leading, but now we have a golden opportunity to be proactive rather than reactive.
Herbert Engineering Corp. is actively taking part in this development. We have studied different ship concepts to meet the 2030 and 2050 goals and are ready to support Owners and other players in the market in their continuous work toward a low carbon future. With so much happening, we can help you in this analysis, applying the findings to your fleet and trade. A review of your current fleet, operating area and trades will be a good start, setting a base for further, more detailed plans.
To familiarize yourself with a set of different related studies you can visit the following pages
https://marine-offshore.bureauveritas.com/newsroom/can-ammonia-be-safe-fuel-shipping-industry-future
https://www.lr.org/en-ae/insights/sustainability/low-carbon-pathways/